SEATTLE – Sales in the United States could reach $45.8 billion by 2025, according to a new cannabis revenue forecast by data firm Headset. The forecast includes projected sales in all fifty states and surpasses previous estimates by more than $20 billion.
States with significant growth potential, including Florida, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, and Virginia, are expected to play a large role in expanding the total addressable market. Key takeaways from the forecast include:
- Florida is expected to reach $3.2 billion sales in 2025, making it the country’s second-largest market (behind California).
- New York, with adult-use licenses expected to be issued in 2023, is projected to be the third-largest market, with an addressable population of 15 million and sales reaching $2.8 billion by 2025.
- New Jersey, with its adult-use transition expected in March 2022, is projected to boast an adult population of 7 million and produce $1.6 billion in sales by 2025.
- Ohio, an emerging market in 2021, is projected to actualize a majority of its potential and post annual combined sales nearing $1.6 billion by 2025.
- Virginia, with an untapped adult market nearly as large as New Jersey’s, is expected to reach $1.3 billion in revenue by 2025.
To arrive at its projections, Headset extrapolated from data acquired in-house and from external sources. For states where it collects data, Headset leveraged historical per-capita spending and applied compound annual growth rates based on past trends. In all other states — including those that have not yet legalized — the company crunched census data, per-capita spending, and estimations for the likelihood of medical and/or adult-use legalization during the subject period.
