LOUISVILLE, Colo. – BDSA, provider of the most accurate and comprehensive retail sales data for the cannabis industry, announces the potential impact of the five statewide and host of local cannabis legalization propositions on the ballot following the recent midterm elections.
BDSA’s most recent Cannabis Market Forecast outlined predictions for when new markets will legalize adult-use cannabis and when sales will begin. Here’s how BDSA’s forecast compares with the reality of the 2022 election results:
Arkansas – Arkansas’ Issue 4 failed to pass by 6%. BDSA did not predict the passage of Arkansas’s Issue 4 proposition and current forecasts do not include adult-use sales through 2026.
Maryland – Maryland’s Marijuana Legalization Amendment passed with almost 67% support. BDSA forecasted adult-use sales to begin in Maryland in 2024, reaching $215 million for the year.
Missouri – Missouri’s Marijuana Legalization Initiative passed with approximately 53% support. BDSA’s cannabis forecast shows adult-use sales beginning in Missouri in 2023, amounting to $277 million in its first year.
North Dakota – Voters in North Dakota rejected Statutory Measure 2 by an approximate 10% margin, though some votes were still uncounted as of this writing. BDSA’s most recent forecast models a slow start to adult-use sales beginning in 2024.
South Dakota – Measure 27 was defeated by a margin of approximately 6%. BDSA’s forecast showed adult-use sales starting in 2024. Of note, South Dakota saw significantly lower turnout this year than in 2020 and more highly organized opposition leading up to the election. With the passage of legalization in Missouri and Maryland, an additional 9.2 million adults will have access to legal cannabis.
A survey conducted by the National Cannabis Roundtable in Sept. 2022 showed that 76% of Republicans support Federal non-interference with the cannabis industry. Even more impactful is that 65% of Republicans surveyed claimed they would approve of a measure protecting banks that work with legal cannabis businesses.
At the time of writing, five cities in Texas (Denton, Elgin, Harker Heights, Killeen and San Marcos) voted to decriminalize cannabis possession to some degree. Decriminalization measures also cruised to victory in five Ohio cities, with Kent, Laurelville, Shawnee, Rushville and Corning passing measures to liberalize possession.
While it’s unlikely that the House will move toward full legalization or rescheduling of cannabis, many regulatory experts and analysts expect there to be action on marginal reforms, with the SAFE Banking Act having the highest chance of any existing bill passing in the next two years.
About BDSAHeadquartered in Louisville, Colorado, BDSA helps businesses improve revenues, reduce innovation risk and prioritize market expansion with accurate and actionable cannabis market intelligence, consumer research and advisory services. The company provides a holistic understanding of the cannabis market by generating insights from point-of-sale data, wholesale data, consumer research and market forecasts. To learn more, please visit bdsa.com.
