Nearly every election over the past decade has changed the landscape for the cannabis industry, and 2024’s was no exception. Whether a second Trump administration bodes well for the industry is anyone’s guess at this point, but reading between the lines there is reason to believe the next four years could produce some positive outcomes for the market and cannabis investors.
Florida’s medical cannabis market was expected to surpass $2.1 billion in sales during 2024, according to an estimate by the Brightfield Group. Although an initiative to legalize recreational sales and use barely failed to meet the state’s supermajority threshold for passage, advocates will try to push the issue across the finish line in the future, eventually resulting in a $5–$6-billion market.
Given Florida’s population of 22 million residents and the 140 million tourists who visit the Sunshine state every year, it’s not hard to imagine the state could become the biggest cannabis market in the country if recreational legalization passes. An analysis by Florida’s Office of Economic and Demographic Research estimated recreational marijuana could bring in at least $196 million and as much as $431 million annually in sales tax revenue.
In anticipation of a thriving recreational market, Trulieve, Curaleaf, and other multistate operators have invested heavily in Florida over the past few years, but it’s anyone’s guess how much longer they will have to wait.
“Sometimes it takes an unpleasant person to get something radical done,” said Curaleaf Chief Executive Officer Boris Jordan, on his optimism about the incoming administration. So long as the next Attorney General doesn’t throw up any roadblocks, cannabis remains on track to be rescheduled sometime this year. That’s expected to result in major tax savings for operators due to the elimination of Internal Revenue Code Section 280E, which prohibits companies that traffic in Schedule I substances from deducting standard business expenses.
As cannabis investors survey the lay of the land in 2025, it will be challenging to find any sure bets but there are always opportunities, said Irina Dashevsky, a partner and co-chair of the cannabis law practice group at Greenspoon Marder. “If I’m an investor, I’d be looking at making moves on cannabis stocks, because you know what the warts are and you know what you’re getting in terms of established companies with established brands, established operations, and licenses,” she said. “It’s far less speculative, and you can get a lot of bang for your buck that way.”
On the state level, Dashevsky opined New York is still a risky bet for cannabis investors, due to the unlimited licensing structure and the well-established illicit and gray markets. “I think we’ve got a lot of new and small investors, like landlords, jumping into the game there,” she said. “You can have very nice, small operating businesses in New York, but that whole scheme with unlimited licenses is designed to have tons of small industry participants, and therefore it’s hard to scale.”
Florida, on the other hand, presents a more enticing opportunity over the long haul because of the state’s limited licensing scheme and a requirement that cultivation, manufacturing, and retail operations be vertically integrated.
“Florida is way more interesting with way more upside,” Dashevsky said. “I still think cannabis investors are more interested in limited-licensure markets.”
Of course, unless state and federal agencies begin cracking down on the illicit market, legal operators will continue to be at a distinct disadvantage.
“My understanding is that the state-legal cannabis industry is about a $25–$30-billion market in this country, but cannabis is a $100-billion industry in this country,” Dashevsky said. “That means 70–75 percent of the total market is illicit or gray.”
