Cannabis on the Ballot Expected to Draw Millions of Voters

WASHINGTON D.C. – Roughly 81 million eligible voters failed to participate in the 2020 election, but with hot-button issues like cannabis and abortion on the ballot in multiple states in 2024, voter turnout is poised for a big shift. Experts suggest these divisive topics may mobilize younger and previously disengaged voters in record numbers.

According to the Brookings Institute, statewide referendums about cannabis legalization change the composition of a state’s electorate in significant ways. 

In 2008, Washington’s 18-29 demographic represented 10 percent of the total electorate. In 2012, the year recreational cannabis was on the ballot, the same demographic represented 21 percent of the electorate. Colorado also saw a jump among the same demographic during the same years, moving from 14 percent in 2008 to 20 percent in 2012 when cannabis was on the ballot. Nationally, youth turnout for 2008 and 2012 stayed relatively the same, representing about 18 percent of the electorate.

A Spring 2024 poll conducted by the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School found more than half of 18-to-29-year-olds nationwide say they will “definitely be voting” in the 2024 election. With cannabis referendums on the ballot in five states, there’s plenty to motivate Gen Z and the youngest millennials to cast their votes in the United States elections on Tuesday, November 5. 

Florida – Amendment 3, Marijuana Legalization Initiative

Voters in the nation’s third most populous state will decide the fate of adult-use cannabis in November. In 2006, Florida added a state constitutional amendment requiring a supermajority of 60 percent to pass constitutional amendments. Since then, nine constitutional amendments have earned more than 50 percent of the vote, but all failed to reach the supermajority threshold.

“Having the ballot measures fundamentally shifts the demographics of who is targeted for turnout and who turns out,” said Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried in February. “This is going to be the tactic. We’re going to run on these issues [abortion and cannabis] that voters care about.”

In September, former President and Republican Presidential Nominee Donald Trump voiced his support for the amendment, sparking anger among Florida’s conservative politicians. 

“As I have previously stated, I believe it is time to end needless arrests and incarcerations of adults for small amounts of marijuana for personal use,” said Trump. “We must also implement smart regulations, while providing access for adults, to safe, tested product. As a Floridian, I will be voting yes on Amendment 3 this November.”

What it does: Legalizes recreational marijuana for adults age 21 and older. Allows adults to possess up to three ounces of cannabis and five grams of concentrate. Existing medical marijuana dispensaries would be allowed to sell recreational cannabis. The Florida State Legislature could allow for the licensure of other entities to acquire, cultivate, process, manufacture, sell, and distribute cannabis-related products for adult consumption.

Chances of passing: The measure requires a 60-percent yes vote to pass. A Suffolk University/USA TODAY/WSVN-TV poll conducted in August showed support at 63 percent. Florida passed its medical marijuana initiative in 2016 with 71 percent in favor and 29 percent opposed.

Additional info: Amendment 3 does not include provisions for home cultivation or criminal-record expungement to avoid conflicts with Florida’s “single-subject rule.”

Supporters: Smart & Safe Florida raised $90.4 million and spent $62.6 million through August 30. Florida-based multistate operator Trulieve provided $82.89 million to the campaign.

Opponents: Floridians Against Recreational Marijuana, Florida Freedom Fund, and Keep Florida Clean raised a total of $14.6 million and spent $608,513.71 through August 30. Hedge fund manager Kenneth Griffin donated $12 million to the opposition campaign.

Nebraska – Initiative 437, Marijuana Legalization Initiative; Initiative 438, Medical Marijuana Regulation Initiative

For the first time, Nebraskans will have the opportunity to vote on medical marijuana, through a pair of initiatives to legalize (Initiative 437) and regulate (Initiative 438) a medical cannabis program. To qualify for an initiated statute in Nebraska, groups must collect signatures equal to seven percent of registered voters. That makes Nebraska the only state where signatory groups do not know the exact number of signatures required to make the ballot until after they’ve been submitted, four months before the election. Further complicating the issue is a distribution requirement for petitions to include signatures from five percent of registered voters in thirty-eight of Nebraska’s ninety-three counties. The Nebraska Secretary of State Bob Evnen reported 89,962 valid signatures from the campaign Nebraskans for Medical Marijuana, meeting the distribution requirement in fifty-two counties in 2024.

Despite a lawsuit from former state senator John Kuehn seeking to invalidate both petitions, Evnen certified the initiatives for the ballot on September 13. Kuehn argues there are insufficient valid signatures for the petition and claims that, because cannabis remains a Schedule 1 substance under federal law, the state legislature lacks the authority to regulate it.

“I am certifying the petitions because, at this point, they appear to have met the threshold signature requirements,” Evnen said in a statement. “That could change in light of the Attorney General’s investigation. Both cannabis petitions will appear on the ballot, but a court could order later that the initiatives be thrown out.”

What it does: Initiative 437 legalizes medical marijuana for patients with qualifying conditions. Initiative 438 would establish the Nebraska Medical Cannabis Commission to regulate the program. Qualifying patients would be able to use, possess, and acquire up to five ounces of cannabis.

Chances of passing: Previous legislative efforts have stalled under the state’s unique signature requirements, but public sentiment appears favorable. Polling in early 2024 showed 70 percent support for legalizing medical cannabis.

Additional info: A similar medical marijuana initiative was attempted in 2020 but failed after the Nebraska Supreme Court ruled it violated the state’s single-subject rule.

Additional info: Minors may qualify for the program with a written recommendation from a healthcare practitioner and written consent from a parent or guardian. The law would authorize caregivers to assist a qualified patient by possessing cannabis and related accessories on behalf of their patient. 

Supporters: Nebraska Families for Medical Cannabis raised $1,382,515.94 and spent $1,376,776.56 as of July 30. The top donor, Nebraska Families 4 Medical Cannabis, contributed $673,568.87 to the campaign.

Opponents: N/A

South Dakota – Initiated Measure 29, Marijuana Legalization Initiative

Many South Dakotans will have their third chance to legalize cannabis for adult use. In 2020, voters passed a similar amendment that included a regulated market by a vote of 54 percent to 45 percent. However, Circuit Judge Christina Klinger ruled the measure violated the state’s single-subject rule. 

“Today’s decision protects and safeguards our constitution,” Governor Kristi Noem (R) said after the decision in February 2021. “I’m confident that South Dakota Supreme Court, if asked to weigh in as well, will come to the same conclusion.”

The South Dakota Supreme Court upheld the ruling. 

In 2022, an adult-use legalization measure without provisions for a regulated market was rejected by a vote of 47 percent to 53 percent.

What it does: Legalizes recreational marijuana for adults age 21 and over. Allows possession of up to two ounces of flower, sixteen grams of concentrate, and home cultivation of up to six plants.

Chances of passing: A South Dakota News Watch poll from June shows 52 percent of registered voters are against the measure with six percent undecided. Polling for the 2024 initiative appears similar to polling from 2022’s adult-use legalization efforts. 

Additional info: The initiative focuses solely on personal use and cultivation. It doesn’t establish a commercial market, due to the state’s single-subject rule.

Supporters: South Dakotans for Better Marijuana Laws raised $1,021,816.91 and spent $1,018,742.38 through May 14.

Opponents: Protecting South Dakota Kids raised $37,832.23 and spent $37,104.10 through May 14.

North Dakota – Initiated Measure 5, Marijuana Legalization Initiative

North Dakotan voters passed a medical marijuana initiative in 2016, but they rejected adult-use initiatives in 2018 and 2022 by 55 percent and 59 percent respectively. According to Steve Bakken, chair of the sponsoring committee behind the measure, the 2024 version is more conservative and fits into the fabric of North Dakota.

“A big part of this is the educational piece,” said Bakken. “Getting the public, and elected officials and everyone educated on the real measure and what the real ramifications are, that’s where the lift starts.”

The 2024 version includes possession limits Bakken believes will help law enforcement differentiate between recreational growers and those involved in illicit trade. Unfortunately for Bakken and his supporters, the ballot title for the measure voters will read concludes with a relatively poor pitch for legalizing cannabis.

“The estimated fiscal impact of this measure includes revenues of $10,227,600, expenses of $8,324,275, and an undetermined amount of additional costs associated with behavioral health and social impacts for the 2025-2027 biennium,” the ballot title for the measure states. 

What it does: Legalizes marijuana for adults 21 and over, allowing possession of up to one ounce of flower, four grams of concentrate, and 300mg of edibles. It also includes home cultivation for up to six plants.

Chances of passing: North Dakota voters rejected a similar measure in 2022. This attempt will require a stronger than expected turnout to succeed.

Additional info: The measure would allow licensing for up to seven cultivation facilities and eighteen retailers. 

Supporters: New Economic Frontier raised $287,654.60 and spent $194,032.07 through July 4. Pure Dakota Health of Bismarck and Pure Dakota Health of Fargo led the list of contributors with donations of $100,000 each.

Opponents: N/A

Arkansas – Medical Marijuana Expansion Initiative

Arkansas voters passed a medical marijuana amendment for 17 qualifying conditions in 2016 by a vote of about 53 percent to 47 percent. Since then, three Arkansas House bills have been passed to modify the program. This year’s expansion initiative includes provisions for home growing, allows more health care practitioners to certify patients, expands qualifying conditions, and permits the use of out-of-state medical marijuana cards. 

A Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll conducted in early September found 54 percent of voters support expanding access to medical cannabis in November with 35.5 percent against and 10.5 percent undecided. 

“Medical marijuana expansion is particularly popular among the state’s younger voters, among those with college degrees, among voters of color, and among voters who live in urban/suburban areas,” said Hendrix College Emeritus Professor of Politics Jay Barth. “Ratification of Issue 3 would, it seems, move Arkansas voters one step closer to full legalization of recreational marijuana in the state.”

What it does: Modifies the state’s medical marijuana program by expanding qualifying conditions and the types of health care practitioners who can certify patients. It adds home growing and reciprocity for out-of-state medical patients while removing some restrictions for cannabis advertising. It also allows cultivation facilities to sell directly to dispensaries, manufacturers, and other cultivation facilities. 

Chances of passing: Recent polling shows majority support for this initiative with moderate opposition.

Additional info: Health care practitioners including medical doctors (MD), osteopathic doctors (DO), nurse practitioners, physicians’ assistants, and pharmacists would be able to certify patients via telehealth under this measure.

Supporters: Arkansas for Patient Access raised  $1,650,959.65 and spent $1,337,890.30 as of June 30. The top donor, Osage Creek Cultivation, contributed $102,000.

Opponents: Stronger Arkansas raised $375,000 and spent $373,344.05 as of June 30. Its top contributor, Ray Ruddy, donated $100,000 to the campaign.