LOUISVILLE, Colo. –
BDSA, a leading provider of market intelligence for the cannabis industry, today released its latest five-year global legal cannabis market forecast. The forecast reveals that the cannabis industry is poised to experience substantial growth driven primarily by adult-use sales, with global legal sales reaching $55 billion in 2027.
United States cannabis markets, particularly those in the Midwest and Northeast, are driving adult-use sales growth. BDSA forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 11% from 2022 to 2027, resulting in a $43 billion legal U.S. cannabis market in 2027. The adult-use channel is expected to represent a significant $35 billion of those sales.
“New York, Missouri, New Jersey and Maryland are set to experience significant market growth, with New York and New Jersey each projected to be $2.5 billion markets by 2027,” said Roy Bingham, co-founder and CEO of BDSA. “While mature markets like California and Colorado continue to face stagnating or declining sales, Michigan has emerged as an outlier and is expected to become a $3.8 billion market by 2027.”
BDSA forecasts a return to modest sales growth in California in 2025, and the market is expected to rebound to $5.24 billion in 2027. Despite a sales decrease in 2022, Colorado’s cannabis market is stabilizing with expected sales of $1.6 billion in 2023, followed by eventual single-digit sales growth to reach $1.7 billion by 2027.
In Canada, legal sales are predicted to increase by 9% in 2023, reaching $4.6 billion. With a projected 5% CAGR from 2022 to 2027, the 2027 market will reach $5.3 billion in legal sales. Adult-use sales are anticipated to account for $4.3 billion in 2023, while the medical channel will gradually decline to $200 million by 2027.
Global markets beyond the U.S. and Canada are set to experience substantial growth, expanding by 38% in 2023 to reach $2.4 billion in sales. International cannabis markets are projected to maintain a 29% CAGR between 2022 and 2027, reaching $6.3 billion in sales by 2027. This growth will primarily come from adult-use channels, with Germany scaling back its legalization plans, but still introducing a limited pilot program. In Mexico, adult-use sales are forecasted to start in the second half of 2024 and reach $1.5 billion by 2027.
About BDSA
Headquartered in Louisville, Colorado, BDSA helps businesses improve revenues, reduce innovation risk and prioritize investments with accurate and actionable cannabis market intelligence, consumer research and advisory services. The company provides a holistic understanding of the cannabis market by generating insights from point-of-sale data, online retail menus, consumer research and market forecasts. To learn more, please visit bdsa.com.
